The Danger of Wishful Thinking

Every leader needs optimism.

But every leader also needs the courage to distinguish optimism from wishful thinking.

I learned that lesson in an unexpected place.

In the early 1990s, my wife’s grandmother suffered a massive stroke. She lost her speech, the use of her right side, and spent the rest of her life in a nursing home.

Every time Kristine and I visited, we were greeted by the same resident standing near the entrance. His name was Joey.

Without fail, he would smile and excitedly say, “Frank’s coming! Frank’s coming! Frank’s coming today!”

At first, I assumed Frank was a regular visitor. Eventually, I asked one of the nurses about him.

She shared a story I’ll never forget.

Joey had a developmental disability that left him with the mental capacity of a young child. He had lived with his mother until she passed away when he was in his thirties. Unable to care for him, the family brought Joey to the nursing home. His older brother, Frank, dropped him off and told Joey he would come back to get him.

He never did.

Yet every single day—for more than twenty years—Joey waited with complete confidence that today would be the day.

“Frank’s coming.”

It is heartbreaking because Joey wasn’t lying to himself. He genuinely believed something that simply wasn’t supported by reality.

Leaders can fall into the same trap.

Optimism is one of the greatest assets a leader can possess. I’ve spent much of my career developing large energy projects, and I can tell you that pessimists rarely build anything significant. Every successful project requires persistence, resilience, and the belief that obstacles can be overcome.

But optimism becomes dangerous when it ignores the facts.

I’ve seen teams continue investing millions of dollars into projects because they convinced themselves a key landowner would eventually change his mind—even though every conversation suggested otherwise.

I’ve seen developers assume regulators would suddenly reverse their positions despite no evidence that anything had changed.

I’ve seen organizations continue funding initiatives because no one wanted to admit the original assumptions were wrong.

Hope had quietly replaced strategy.

Great leaders don’t confuse possibility with probability.

They ask difficult questions. They demand evidence. They develop contingency plans. They encourage honest disagreement. Most importantly, they create cultures where people feel safe delivering bad news before bad news becomes a failed project.

Can people change their minds? Absolutely. In fact, helping them do so is often the art—and one of the most rewarding parts—of leadership and project development.

But when your strategy becomes little more than hoping circumstances will magically improve, you’re no longer leading. You’re waiting.

And waiting is not a strategy.

Whenever I find myself holding onto an outcome that the facts no longer support, I think about Joey standing by that nursing home door, smiling with absolute confidence.

“Frank’s coming.”

As leaders, we owe our organizations—and ourselves—something better than wishful thinking.

Optimism should inspire our vision.

Reality should guide our decisions.